Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Price hikes spell AB InBev Q3 hit, Carlsberg miss
AB InBev, the world's biggest brewer and maker of Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's persuaded increasingly affluent Brazilians to drink higher priced beer and U.S. drinkers to stick with or shift to premium brands despite an economic slowdown.
By contrast, Carlsberg, the world No. 4 and producer of Baltika and Tuborg, suffered a double whammy in Russia of lower volumes and higher costs, but maintained its full-year profit outlook, against some expectations of a downgrade, sending its battered shares sharply higher.
Belgium-based AB InBev said on Wednesday third-quarter core profit (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) rose 5.5 percent on a like-for-like basis to $3.97 billion, against a market expectation of $3.88 billion.
Total volumes of beer and other drinks fell by 0.2 percent on a like-for-like basis, but revenue grew by 3.6 percent.
The brewer, which makes around 80 percent of its profit from North and South America, said it expects volumes to gain momentum in the fourth quarter, particularly because of relatively weak year-earlier levels in Brazil, with increases in global commodity costs mitigated by forward hedging.
It raised U.S. beer prices by an average 3 percent at the start of October and Chief Financial Officer Felipe Dutra said prices appeared to have little impact on volumes, while Brazilian demand continues to grow even as prices rise.
Dutra added that Brazilian volumes are expected to increase significantly next year when the minimum wage is set go up by 14 percent in a market where the group has a near-70 percent share.
At the Copenhagen-based brewer, third-quarter operating profit fell by 21 percent, steeper than expected, hurt by tax-driven price hikes that shrank the Russian beer market by 7 percent and more costly barley imports enforced by last year's poor harvest there.
The year-on-year comparison was made even worse because Russia -- Carlsberg's biggest market accounting for 40 percent of group profits -- was hit by a heat wave in summer 2010, the cause of the poor harvest but a firm boost for beer consumption.
Russia is set to raise duty on beer again in 2012. Carlsberg said it was increasing prices this month and expected wholesalers and distributors to build stocks in the final quarter, helping it to maintain its 2011 outlook.
Carlsberg CEO Jorgen Buhl Rasmussen told a conference call that price competition was intensifying in Russia, but that he expected the market to grow modestly next year.
Carlsberg shares were up 3.2 percent at 1330 GMT, having hit a two-month high, AB InBev's struck a five-month high and were 1.6 percent higher. The STOXX 600 European food and beverage index .SX3P was 0.4 percent weaker.
"It's largely down to expectations," said Andrew Holland, analyst at Societe Generale. "Carlsberg held their guidance and said what they need to do in Q4 to hit that target."
Carlsberg shares are still down 33 percent this year, while AB InBev's are only 4 percent weaker.
The world's top four brewers -- including also SABMiller (SAB.L) and Heineken (HEIN.AS) -- have all sought growth in emerging markets, while trying to persuade drinkers in stagnant or declining U.S. and European markets, to pay more.
In October, Heineken reported a surprise increase in volumes and revenues, helped by a rebound in Russia and stronger African markets.
The same month, SABMiller, which reports full first-half results on November 17, said beer volumes were up 3 percent in the six months to the end of September, driven by Latin America, but below expectations due to poor performances in Europe and China.
5 Dec. 2011