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Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

Who Fancies a BUD?

Investing in one of the world's largest brewers - Anheuser-Busch InBev

Rupert is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Beer. Although some would not like to admit it, it is a staple of modern day life. This kind of product has a certain defensive quality about it; unless there is a huge overnight change in perceptions, beer sales and their growth will rise in line with global population growth. The case for investment in the industry is simple--it is a fairly stable industry, and last year beer sales rose last year for the 27th year in a row.

So then should we consider investing in one of the world's largest brewers - Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD)?

World Beer Rankings

RankBrandMain market2010-2011 growthOwner
1SnowChina-2.36%SABMiller (NASDAQOTH:SBMRY)
2BUD LightUSA-4.4%AB InBEV
3BudwiserWorldwide4.5%AB InBev
4Corona ExtraWorldwide9%AB InBev
5SkolAfrica-2.3%Carlsberg Breweries
6HeinekenWorldwide4.8%Heineken International
7Coors LightUK/US25%Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP)
8Miller LightUS-1.1%SABMiller
9BrahmaSouth America-3.4%AB InBev
10Asahi Super DryJapan2.5%Asahi
Total top 10 Growth32.24%

Source: http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com

As we can see, ABInBev produce some of the best-selling beers in the world. Anheuser-Busch also produce:

  • 3 ‘Global brands’ – Stella Artois, Becks, Budwiser
  • 2 ‘Multi-country brands’ – Leffe, Hoegaarden
  • 200 + Local Champions

What about the company's finanicals?

Data Source: Motley Fool CAPS

ABInBev generates a very respectable gross margin of 65.5% and a pre-tax profit margin of 25.5%. This gives the company plenty of free cash flow, which it can use to return cash to shareholders or re-invest into the business.

However, this margin could come under pressure from increasing commodity prices.

Data Source: Motley Fool CAPS

ABInBev's growth strategy has been aggressive. It has been driven through acquisitions and aggressive pricing by the firm. This has led to a large increase in sales, but slow growth in EPS. (Although these figures are somewhat distorted by abnormally low growth in, Q4 2010 and Q1 2011).  ABInBev is effectively buying market share from its competitors.

If we look at 3 year growth on a company level we get a much better growth picture:

ABInBevSABMiller Heineken NVMolson Coors
Revenue - 3 Yr Growth Rate7.00% 21%16.5% 7.45%
EPS - 3 Yr Growth Rate18.43% 33%25%-4.22%
Dividend - 3 Yr Growth Rate 235.90% 34%25%11.82%
Dividend Cover 2011 3.5 2.43.23

Data Source: Motley Fool CAPS

This data presents an interesting picture of BUD versus its competitors. Although BUD has the slowest revenue growth amongst its US-listed competitors, it has a EPS growth rate that is slightly better (second in the group). BUD has the highest dividend growth in the group, with the highest dividend cover, leaving plenty of room for extra dividend growth and plenty of free cash flow.

So in conclusion, ABInBev looks to be a decent investment. It products are some of the most popular in the world. However, its revenue figures are lacking behind its competitors as it seeks to drive sales volumes through lower prices. I believe BUD will continue to improve investor returns, with its vast portfolio of products.

With all these factors in mind i think ABInvBev is a good investment for the long and short term. Although if you are looking for more growth, bothSABMiller (NASDAQOTH: SBMRY) and Heineken NV (NASDAQOTH:HINKY) could be better stocks.

20 Nov. 2012



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