The beer market dynamics in Russia is approaching zero, yet major brewers are divided into those who developed considerably in 2017 and those who considerably reduced their volumes. For instance, company Efes has managed to substantially extend their sales due to restrained pricing policy and activity in the modern trade. Heineken has also demonstrated an excellent performance promoted by significant increase of advertisement budgets launching a non-alcohol sort of the title brand and unusual activity in the economy market segment. Carlsberg and AB InBev have been focusing on margins and lost a market share of their inexpensive brands. Serious dependence on PET package and mass enthusiasm about Zhigulevskoe have negatively impacted the most of big regional brewers, that have been for the first time pressed by the leaders in the key sales channels, especially in Volga and Central regions. In the small business there has been a noticeable slowdown in appearing of new restaurant breweries, yet the number of craft breweries has been growing rapidly. In 2018, the beer market is likely to grow a little, while the share of AB InBev Efes may decrease due to the integration. ...
“Catalogue of Russian Beer Producers 2018” includes 1070 businesses ranging from large subsidiaries of international companies to rather small restaurant and craft microbreweries.The catalogue includes 32 large breweries, 75 regional breweries, 693 industrial mini- and microbreweries as well as 270 restaurant breweries. ...
Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
Fitch rates Anheuser-Busch InBev’s USD4bn issues at ‘A’
ABIFI's notes rank pari passu with most of ABI's other debt and benefit from the same system of unconditional, full and irrevocable cross guarantees enjoyed by debt incurred by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV/SA, Anheuser-Busch InBev Worldwide Inc, Anheuser-Busch Companies LLC. (formerly Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc), Brandbrew S.A. and CoBrew NV. The debt of these entities accounted for the majority of group debt. AmBev, an important cash generator within the ABI group and currently in a net cash position remains however excluded from the pool of guarantors. Based on the ABIFI notes prospectus, ABI also has the option to exclude Grupo Modelo SAB de CV (Modelo) when its acquisition is finalized.
Please refer to the group structure chart in Fitch's Credit Update for ABI published on 14 December 2012 atfor full details of the relations among the entities mentioned above and their total indebtedness. ABIFI was only incorporated in December 2012 and, therefore did not have any outstanding debt or cash flow generation at the time of our last Credit Update.
ABI's credit profile is supported by the following key factors, among others:
Leading Global Player:
ABI's rating benefits from its size and leadership in the global beer industry, benefiting from a broad portfolio of local and global brands, sold across all pricing points, as well as strong routes to market and a highly effective approach to managing costs. ABI's operations are balanced across profitable, mature markets and high growth ones.
Rating Affirmation on Modelo acquisition:
The affirmation in July 2012 of ABI's 'A' IDR following the agreement to acquire 50% of Modelo reflected Fitch's expectation that the transaction (expected to complete in 2013) will only mildly derail the process of steady deleveraging achieved through to end-2011 and that full control of Modelo will strengthen ABI's business and financial profile. Future financial policies, combined with very strong free cash flow (FCF) generation, should enable ABI to maintain net debt/EBITDA at or below 2.0x from end-2014.
Superior Cash Flow Generation:
ABI's FCF of between USD5bn and USD7bn annually projected for 2012-2015 is superior both in dollar terms and as a proportion of sales to most corporates in the 'A' rating category. Fitch calculates that ABI's lease, pension, minority dividend adjusted net debt/EBITDARP and funds from operations (FFO) adjusted leverage will only temporarily exceed 2.0x and 2.5x respectively in 2013, despite up to approximately USD15.4bn merger and acquisition net spending over 2012-2013 from the Dominicana and Modelo acquisitions and increases to dividend payouts.
RATING SENSITIVITY GUIDANCE:
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating actions include:
- Any debt-funded acquisitions, material signs of weakness in the company's Brazilian or US operations or generous shareholder distributions causing leverage to remain at or above 2.0x-2.5x on a permanent basis.
While not expected before 2014, future developments that could lead to a positive rating action include:
- a combination of leverage falling closer to 1.0x, EBITDA-based interest cover rising to more than 10x-12x, wider geographic diversification while maintaining strong profitability and lower M&A risk.
17 Jan. 2013