Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Asian tycoons near final battle in war for Singapore’s F&N
Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi appears to have the advantage going into a formal auction that begins on Monday to decide the fate of the 130-year-old company, which sold its prized Tiger Beer brand to Heineken NV for S$5.6 billion ($4.56 billion) last year.
The Thai gambit values F&N at nearly $11.3 billion and puts the pressure on a consortium led by Riady's Singapore-listed property firm Overseas Union Enterprise Ltd to counter the offer or withdraw from Southeast Asia's largest-ever corporate acquisition.
"This has extended Charoen's advantage. He has an upper hand over OUE because he's only about 10 percent away from gaining majority control of F&N," said Goh Han Peng, an analyst at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore.
Monday's auction was triggered because neither bidder had declared a final offer by a deadline on Sunday set by Singapore's Securities Industry Council.
Thailand's TCC Assets Ltd, headed by Charoen, raised its offer last week to S$9.55 a share, above the S$9.08 bid by the Overseas Union-led consortium. F&N shares rose 1.4 percent to S$9.71 in early trade on Monday.
Charoen acquired an additional 90.8 million shares, or a 6.3 percent stake in F&N, at S$9.55 each on Friday and another 2.2 million shares on Saturday.
The move raised his total stake - held through TCC Assets Ltd and Thai Beverage PLC - to 40.6 percent including acceptances. Charoen's previous offer was S$8.88 per share.
The offers by Charoen and the Overseas Union group are conditional on getting more than 50 percent of F&N. If Charoen wins, F&N will have to pay a break fee of up to S$50 million to the Overseas Union group.
DRINKS AND PROPERTY
F&N has a property portfolio worth more than S$8 billion and soft drinks, dairy and publishing businesses. It sold Tiger Beer to Dutch brewing giant Heineken in September.
F&N's independent financial advisor JP Morgan has said its sum-of-the-parts valuation is S$8.58 to S$11.56 per share.
In the auction, each side can revise its offer by a minimum of one Singapore cent per share once a day. The revision must be unconditional and in cash.
The process will continue until neither side revises its offer or the securities watchdog stops the auction.
Forbes says Charoen is worth $6.2 billion. His rival, Riady, is also president of the Lippo group founded by his father Mochtar Riady.
Charoen has extended the deadline of his previous offer seven times and the Overseas Union group twice. The multiple extensions have tested the patience of F&N shareholders.
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd <2503.T>, F&N's second-biggest shareholder with a stake of around 14.8 percent, has given its conditional support to the Overseas Union group.
The Japanese brewer will offer to buy F&N's food and beverage business for S$2.7 billion if the Overseas Union group's bid is successful. JP Morgan's valuation of that unit is S$1.88 billion to S$3.82 billion.
If Charoen wins control of F&N, analysts say he is likely to use F&N's distribution network in Singapore and Malaysia to sell his other products and to market F&N brands in Thailand, where he already has an edge.
21 Jan. 2013