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4-2017

Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

Africa set to eclipse Asia in beer – research

While Asia will boast the highest consumption level for beer in the coming years, Africa is set to provide the strongest drivers for growth, according to recent research.

In its 'Global Beer Trends 2015' report, released late last year, Canadean has forecast that Africa will record an average growth rate of 5% from 2015 to 2020. This performance contrasts with the more mature markets in East and West Europe and North America, where 1% or even less is predicted from 2015 to 2020.

Asia, meanwhile, will grow at an average rate of 3% until 2020, reaching around 900,000 hectolitres.

Beer Consumption Growth
Emerging Africa markets will drive growth

The Africa region is anticipated to see an incremental volume increase of over 37,000 hectolitres by 2020. Canadean analyst Piyumika Jayasena, said: "This notable growth will be fostered by the flourishing economic parameters such as increasing GDP growth rates, fast growing urbanisation and, above all, the rising population with a working age demographic set to surpass that of China and India."

Top 10 Africa Beer Markets and Ranking - 2020(F) versus 2015(F)
Top 10 Africa Beer Markets and Ranking

South Africa is by far the biggest volume contributor for the region, followed by Nigeria and Angola. In terms of per-capita beer consumption, Seychelles, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon will take the lead, with all three forecast to hit 100 litres each by 2020.

Zambia, meanwhile, is rapidly increasing its consumption volumes, and is expected to surpass Mozambique, Congo (Brazzaville), Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe and Burundi by 2020. Kenya and Ethiopia are also climbing the volume ladder.

"The consumption growth in these markets will be stimulated by the consumer migration from home-brewed to more commercially-brewed beers and subsequently towards premium brands," notes Jayasena. "It will further be backed by the booming population in these markets."

However, of concern on the continent will be the lack of infrastructure, political unrest in certain countries like Nigeria and Kenya, the outbreak of epidemics such as Ebola virus in 2014, and heavy excise duties. Despite this, Jayasena notes: "The region is set to exploit its untapped resources, both natural and human, to become the world's fastest-growing beer consumption region."

11 Jan. 2016

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