The beer market dynamics in Russia is approaching zero, yet major brewers are divided into those who developed considerably in 2017 and those who considerably reduced their volumes. For instance, company Efes has managed to substantially extend their sales due to restrained pricing policy and activity in the modern trade. Heineken has also demonstrated an excellent performance promoted by significant increase of advertisement budgets launching a non-alcohol sort of the title brand and unusual activity in the economy market segment. Carlsberg and AB InBev have been focusing on margins and lost a market share of their inexpensive brands. Serious dependence on PET package and mass enthusiasm about Zhigulevskoe have negatively impacted the most of big regional brewers, that have been for the first time pressed by the leaders in the key sales channels, especially in Volga and Central regions. In the small business there has been a noticeable slowdown in appearing of new restaurant breweries, yet the number of craft breweries has been growing rapidly. In 2018, the beer market is likely to grow a little, while the share of AB InBev Efes may decrease due to the integration. ...
“Catalogue of Russian Beer Producers 2018” includes 1070 businesses ranging from large subsidiaries of international companies to rather small restaurant and craft microbreweries.The catalogue includes 32 large breweries, 75 regional breweries, 693 industrial mini- and microbreweries as well as 270 restaurant breweries. ...
Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
AB InBev Will Try to Keep SABMiller’s Stake in China’s Snow Brand
The idea flies in the face of analysts' expectations that AB InBev would be forced to divest Snow, the world's No. 1 selling beer by volume, in order to secure regulatory approval in China for its roughly $108 billion takeover of SABMiller.
Snow, a mild domestic lager, is mostly sold in China, so few people know of it outside the country. Yet it could be the most strategic asset SABMiller holds. Snow has grown rapidly as Chinese have increased their beer consumption to an average of 45 liters from 7 over the past 25 years, according to Deutsche Bank.
Keeping the business won't be easy. China Resources has the first option to buy out CR Snow and has hired Nomura Holdings Inc. as an adviser, according to a person familiar with the hiring as well as one of the people familiar with AB InBev's plan. Nomura valued SABMiller's 49% interest in CR Snow at $3.6 billion in an analyst report.
AB InBev declined to comment. China Resources didn't respond to requests for comment.
"China Resources is in the driver's seat here," said HSBC analyst Carlos Laboy. "It has to decide: Do we want to keep (AB InBev) as partners or try and buy back our equity stake at an attractive price?"
But AB InBev thinks it can make a case that both sides would benefit by consolidating—which would increase prices—in China, one of the world's largest and most competitive beer markets.
AB InBev has an estimated 18% market share in China with its Budweiser and Harbin brands while CR Snow has a 30% market share, according to Seema International Ltd., a Hong Kong-based alcohol beverage consulting firm. They compete against Tsingtao Brewery, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co. and Carlsberg A/S.
Beer prices are so depressed that brewers struggle with profitability. Earnings before interest and taxes per hectoliter of beer in China is $2, a fraction of the global average of $19 per hectoliter, said Glen Steinman, president of Seema International.
SABMiller gets 2% of its operating profit from CR Snow, and China Resources reported $97.6 million in profit from the business in 2014.
AB InBev typically is averse to holding stakes in companies it doesn't control, said one of the people familiar with the company's plan for CR Snow. But in this case, the Belgian brewer would be comfortable with China Resources owning 51% or more of the company provided AB InBev operates it, the person said.
In addition to expanding Budweiser's distribution, it could cut costs and eventually boost CR Snow's earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization to $1.5 billion, the person said.
AB InBev has been moving quickly to complete divestitures around the world so it can close its takeover of SABMiller by the second half of the year. The company already has agreed to sell SABMiller's interest in the U.S. joint venture MillerCoors LLC to eliminate antitrust concerns. It also is in the process of selling the Peroni and Grolsch beer brands to appease European regulators.
But finalizing a plan for Snow is expected to take longer because the process regarding mergers in China is less straightforward and discussions with China Resources, a state controlled company listed on the Hong Kong exchange, will take time.
"I imagine this transaction will receive very significant scrutiny because of its sheer size," Ronan Harty, a partner at Davis, Polk & Wardwell LLP, who has worked on antitrust matters in China but is not involved in this one. "The (antitrust) review period itself can be extremely, extremely lengthy."
28 Jan. 2016