Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Singapore. Splurging billions on Peroni and Grolsch may not be the smartest move for F&N
Analysts are wary over Fraser and Neave’s involvement in the EUR3 billion sale of premium European beer brands Peroni and Grolsch.
A report by DBS said that FNN’s interest in Peroni and Grolsch is surprising, as analysts had the impression that the group will simply focus on expanding its presence in the ASEAN.
“We are a little mixed on this development at this stage. On the surprise factor, we had the impression that the focus of FNN/ThaiBev would be more on ASEAN region. That said, we believe the intention is to leverage on the Peroni and Grolsch European brands to launch into this region if it was successful,” DBS said.
The report added that FNN might be looking to claw back its beer profits, which vanished after the divestment of its stake in Myanmar Brewery Limited.
“We believe the intention was to leverage on FNN for international expansion, while ThaiBev’s focus remains within Thailand. Although the ThaiBev/ FNN group has a presence in the region, an established beer distribution network is currently only in Thailand (Chang), coupled with export presence in Singapore and Myanmar. It remains to be seen if FNN will be able to significantly ramp up the introduction of the brands within short span of time in the region,” said DBS.
Despite its misgivings, DBS believes that Peroni and Grolsch’s price tag is not excessively high. If the bid pushes through, FNN is likely to fund the acquisition using a mix of internal cash, debt and equity.
“Based on our initial estimates and assuming a price tag of EUR2.5bn (S$3.75bn), we believe FNN is likely to rely on a mix of funding, about 53% debt (S$2bn), 25% equity (S$950m) and 21% cash (S$800m). This is likely to bring FNN’s net gearing to 0.6x (post assumed equity issuance) with a Debt/ EBITDA of under 4x,” said DBS.
4 Feb. 2016