10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Thailand. Investors in Thai Big C cheer $3.5 billion stake sale, rival bid seen unlikely
Shares in Big C Supercenter hit a 13-month high of 251 baht on Monday, just below the offer price of 252.88 baht ($7.1), and jumped more than 9 percent in an otherwise muted market.
If the deal completes, Big C will hand TCC Thailand's second-largest hypermarket operator after the Thai unit of Tesco PLC (TSCO.L).
TCC, which owns the maker of Chang Beer among other assets, outbid Thailand's biggest retailer Central Group to push into a retail sector that is expanding along with the number of middle class consumers.
Central founded Big C in 1993 and sold a controlling stake to Casino in 1999, but still owns 25 percent of the shares and had been seen as a frontrunner in the sale.
One source with direct knowledge of the deal said Central, controlled by the Chirathivat family, was not expected to make a counter bid. Another source, however, cautioned that Central had yet to take a final decision on the future of its stake.
Central declined to comment on the matter.
"Looking at the agreement they signed, the deal is nearly completed. I don't think there will be any change," said Suttatip Perasub, analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Securities.
"It is major step for TCC to expand into the retail business."
TCC owns assets ranging from brewer Thai Bev (TBEV.SI) to property development firms. It agreed to buy German retailer Metro's Vietnam unit last year, but has no retail presence in Thailand.
Shares in Berli Jucker Public Co (BJC.BK), the flagship company in Charoen's consumer product business were up 15 percent on Monday.
Ending its Thai foray, Casino announced on Sunday it would sell its 58.6 percent of Big C to TCC at 252.88 baht per share, a 28 percent premium to Big C's share price when the stake sale plan was announced on Jan. 14.
UBS analyst said that offer price implied an 2016 EV/EBITDA multiple of 15 times - above the 9 times level at which Tesco (TSCO.L) sold its operations in Korea last year, but lower than the 34 times TCC paid for Metro Vietnam.
Casino is also in the process of selling its wholly owned unit Big C Vietnam, which bankers have valued at between $800 million and $1 billion. Berli Jucker has said it is keen to buy the Vietnam unit.
($1 = 35.64 Baht)
8 Feb. 2016