Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Malaysia. Brewers may need to be innovative
The new excise duties regime that was announced in March may eventually cause these companies to rethink their strategies to target a lower net alcohol content in their drinks, said industry observers.
What’s notable is that Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd’s managing director Henrik J. Andersen concedes in its post-AGM press conference that the latest hikes in excise duties is now pushing beer towards the edge of what is still considered as affordable in the country.
“We had to increase our end prices to the consumer after the excise duty hikes were announced. But we did not pass on the full (excise) tax to the consumer and the reason was because we wanted to ensure that beer remains affordable in Malaysia. Affordability remains an issue here,” Andersen pointed out.
“On average we passed on roughly two thirds of the recent excise tax increase. I do believe the Government is aware of the current spending power of Malaysian consumers and we continue to be in a dialog with the Government to try to avoid further tax increases,” he said.
He added that there was no immediate plans to change its strategy but the new structure may open up some opportunities eventually around lower alcoholic content products.
Andersen also said that excise duties in Malaysia were now considered the highest in the world, based on affordability levels; and second-highest after Norway based on absolute levels.
Perhaps the reason why industry players are still speaking up after all these years is because the net disposable income levels have not really caught up with the excise duty increases.
The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s (Mier) consumer sentiment index (CSI) is also still hovering at its record low of 72.9 in the first quarter of 2015, that is still below threshold level of confidence.
Commenting on the MIER figures, Andersen noted that when the CSI was below 100, it also implied a consumer depression while a figure above 100 meant more optimistic consumers.
“When compared with the rest of the countries in South-East Asia, all countries in the region have a CSI figure of above 100, typically ranging between 110 and 120.
“Thus, consumers in Malaysia are not very optimistic and are feeling the pain of price and tax increases that has taken place,” he said.
To recap, the new excise duties that were announced about a month or so ago saw beers with higher alcohol content being charged more in excise duties.
The new structure will now take into account the alcohol content to determine duties that are paid.
It has to be noted that the new structure seemingly targets the majority of industry sales in Malaysia or “mainstream beer” which has a 5% alcohol content such as the popular brands that are readily available in the shops.
These mainstream beers had seen a net hike of about 10% with the latest round of excise duty increase, reports said.
Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB), which will soon be known as Heineken Malaysia Bhd, said in a statement after the excise increase that the price adjustment would vary for different products based on the alcohol content.
“We expect the average consumer price increase for our key brands to be in the range of 2% to 5%. For certain brands like Guinness Draught, Anchor, we have adjusted the prices downward as a result of a marginal drop in excise duties on these brands,” said GAB.
In more technical terms, the latest excise duty announcement sees duties for beer being replaced to RM175 per 100% volume per litre from the existing duty structure of RM7.40 per litre, while the 15% ad valorem (according to value) tax has been removed.
Asked at the press conference on the impact of the excise hikes that have just been announced thus far, Andersen said that it was still too early to gauge its impact on the industry.
While the latest increase was done only after a pause of 10 years since the last increase in Budget 2006, it also has to be noted that the excise duties were hiked for three straight consecutive years before the 10-year pause in Budget 2004, Budget 2005 and Budget 2006.
Experience from other countries also show that pursuing continual hikes in excise duties may eventually cause a reverse in total net amount of excise duties collected as a whole, contrary to its intended effect of adding to Government’s coffers.
Carlsberg, which owns about 25% associate stakes in Sri Lanka-based Lion Brewery (Ceylon) PLC, said that such phenomenon happened in that country when the government there announced the excise duty increase.
“We were a bit setback at the end of last year as the government there announced two very big excise tax increases and we have seen volume dropping after that but we have also seen some volume starting to come back,” he said.
“In fact, what has happened after these two tax increases is that their total tax revenue declined.
“And this is not uncommon as we see this in a lot of countries in that increasing the tax rate does not necessarily mean the government will collect more taxes,” he added.
Carlsberg’s latest annual report 2015 shows that it paid RM683mil (or 41% of its financial year 2015 revenue) in excise duties for products brewed and sold in Malaysia and Singapore.
25 Apr. 2016