Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Analysis of beer market in China
China’s transition to a “new normal” reality backfired on the brewing industry unexpectedly. Stagnation and subsequent market decline resulted from dynamic social and economic changes. There has emerged a “two speed” market where the medium class significance is growing, yet the share of main beer consumers, “blue collar” is decreasing. Also the inflow of consumers is shrinking, as demographics stopped being a growth driver. Finally, beer is giving way to other alcohol drinks....
India. Liquor companies lost $4 billion last year due to prohibition and GST exclusion
Nearly a dozen listed liquor companies in India have lost almost $4 billion, or a third of their market capitalisation, over the past year as their shares fell following a consistent decline in sales growth, prohibition in few states and exclusion of the segment from the GST ambit.
The combined market value of three largest companies — United Spirits, United Breweries and Radico Khaitan — crashed 30 per cent to Rs 55,392 crore from a year ago.
During the same period, the benchmark index Sensex fell marginally by 0.6 per cent.
"Prices of liquor brands went up by over 20 per cent due to taxes since more than two years. Then there are many states that banned alcohol which is impacting the estimated growth of the industry," said Aditya Joshi, consumer analyst with Nirmal Bang.
Since last year, Kerala, Bihar &Tamil Nadu that account for 20 per cent of India's alcohol consumption, banned liquor either completely or in a phased manner.
India is the second-largest spirits-consuming country behind China. However, India's overall liquor consumption at 314 million cases grew less than a percent in 2015, compared with about 2 per cent a year ago, and more than 10 per cent between 2004 and 2014.
"We do not expect the regulatory environment to materially improve in the next two to three years and this will impede any broad improvement in operating profit margins for alcoholic beverage companies," said a report by Moody's.
While the long-term potential of India's alcoholic beverage market is backed by strong growth prospects in the economy, rising disposable incomes and an increasing social acceptance of alcohol, profitability has been a problem. Taxes on alcohol, on an average, account for about 16 per cent of the overall tax revenues of state governments. In India, states levy taxes on alcohol, while the Centre levies duties on imports.
States control manufacturing, distribution and pricing of liquor. Moreover, the liquor segment has been kept out of GST, a big concern in terms of margins, said analysts.
The industry, however, is still hopeful.
"Post GST, alcohol will be the biggest direct source of revenue to a state compared to second largest now. States have been very possessive about this stream of revenue which is best reflected in the fact that they made sure alcohol was not included in GST," said Amrit Kiran Singh, chairman at International Spirits & Wines Association of India that recently met Empowered Committee's chairman to discuss the matter.
12 Aug. 2016