10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Vietnam Government to have $7 billion by selling 12 big SOEs
VTC News quoted Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai as reporting that all VND9 trillion worth of the state’s capital in Habeco would be divested within this year.
Meanwhile, the VND40.5 trillion worth of capital in Sabeco would be divested in 2016-2017.
As for the other 10 enterprises to be sold, Nguyen Duc Chi, chair of the State Capital Investment Corporation (SCIC), mentioned well-known names such as Vinamilk (dairy producer), Bao Minh (insurer), Vinare (re-insurance), Tien Phong Plastics, FPT (technology) and FPT Telecom.
Under the Prime Minister’s instruction in Document No 1787 on the SCIC restructuring plan, SCIC will have to withdraw all capital from the 10 enterprises.
Of the 10 enterprises in SCIC’s portfolio, in Vinamilk alone, the State has a 45 percent stake. With the current market price, the State would earn at least $4.52 billion if it sells the stake.
The other nine enterprises, as estimated by Tuoi Tre, have value of $530 million (most of the enterprises list their shares on the bourse or have been equitized). As such, the total capital the state can expect from selling 10 enterprises put under the SCIC’s management is over $5 billion.
There are no official figures about the value of the other two enterprises – Sabeco and Habeco. However, local newspapers reported that in 2014, ThaiBev, a brewery from Thailand, wanted to buy the state’s stake in Sabeco for $2 bilion.
Meanwhile, if referring to the price at which Carlsberg spent to acquire Habeco’s stakes – VND50,000 per share - the state’s shares in Habeco would be valued at $400 million.
As such, if the state divests its capital in 12 enterprises as planned, it would collect $7.2 billion, a large amount of money in the current context of the tight budget.
However, an analyst said it would be very difficult to assess the exact value of enterprises.
If share auctions can be organized in a professional way, the share price may be much higher than the current market price.
However, the situation may be different if the state sells shares in large quantities at the same time (in 2016-2017).
A source from SCIC said that SCIC would sell two out of 10 enterprises it controls in 2016. These include FPT and Sa Giang Import/Export JSC.
12 Sep. 2016