10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
India’s Prohibition Hypocrisy
The victims were poisoned because this April, in a fit of moralism, Bihar adopted a draconian law prohibiting the sale, possession and consumption of alcohol. It is far from the first such ban that has ended badly.
In a country where the national hero is the saintly Mahatma Gandhi, who considered alcohol an unmitigated evil, drinking has always carried a whiff of disrepute. India’s constitution, in its non-enforceable Directive Principles, urges Indians to work toward prohibition and the government does not serve alcohol even at state banquets and official receptions.
Four out of 29 Indian states (Bihar, Gujarat, Manipur, and Nagaland) and one union territory (Lakshadweep or the Laccadive Islands) are now attempting to enforce total prohibition.
But maintaining a sweeping prohibition policy has long proved difficult in India. In Manipur in 2002, the 1991 ban was lifted in five hill districts, where alcohol consumption is a centuries-old local tradition. Lakshadweep makes an exception for an uninhabited island, where a tourist resort is allowed to operate a bar.
When I was a child, what was then Bombay excused anyone with a doctor’s note confirming alcoholism. Well-heeled executives tripped over themselves to be labeled alcoholics.
The state that best illustrates the appeal and the pitfalls of such moralism is Kerala, which announced in 2014 that it was implementing a partial ban on the sale of alcohol, with the goal of achieving total prohibition in 10 years. It has been backsliding ever since.
A coastal state, Kerala has long been viewed as a tourist paradise – a reputation no doubt kept afloat on a sea of easily available libations. Before the ban, Kerala held a somewhat dubious distinction: India’s highest per capita consumption of spirits.
But in India, where prohibition is popular among many segments of the electorate, politicians find it particularly difficult to resist the self-righteous urge to improve their fellow citizens.
So Kerala’s government introduced the ban. And, at first, many approved. The influential Christian churches applauded the move, as did the Christian-affiliated political parties. Kerala’s Muslim leadership, including the then-ruling coalition’s ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, was equally vocal in its support.
Working-class women, tired of watching their laborer husbands blow their monthly wages on booze, also welcomed the decision, as did traditionalists, Gandhians and other moralists, of which India has an abundance.
No public figure of any consequence in Kerala stood up to oppose the decision. Any politician who might have been inclined to do so knew that they would be instantly tarred as a votary of evil alcohol, an agent of the “liquor mafia,” a bar-loving enemy of good, wholesome Gandhian values.
But there were good reasons to oppose the ban – reasons that had nothing to do with religion, morality, or alcoholism. Excise duties on liquor account for 22 percent of the state revenues that sustain generous welfare programs in Kerala, which boasts the best social development indicators in India. Another 26 percent of state revenues come from tourism, which would surely also take a hit.
Furthermore, much of Kerala’s economic viability depends on dynamic knowledge and services sectors. Attracting talent and investment from abroad would become much more difficult if prohibition hampered the state’s quality of life. IT professionals in Bangalore, in the neighboring state Karnataka, flock to that city’s bars and pubs after long hours at work.
Kerala’s leaders should have known that their state could not afford to do without widely available, heavily taxed liquor. But they began to implement the policy anyway.
Almost immediately, 20,000 bar workers and distillery employees lost their jobs, in a state that already struggles with high unemployment.
Tourism operators were stung by cancellations, as would-be visitors decided to visit Sri Lanka or Goa instead; 50 percent of existing convention bookings were canceled. And IT companies contemplating moving to clean, green, tech-friendly Kerala expressed concern about the prohibition policy.
It was not long before Kerala’s government decided that prohibition would apply only to hard alcohol, and closed bars could reopen as wine and beer parlors. But that was not enough to save the government in June’s state election, which produced a new communist administration that, advocating education about the evils of alcohol instead of a ban, has promised to review the prohibition policy.
So Kerala is no longer hurtling toward disaster in the name of saving people from themselves. But it never should have gone as far as it did, given experience with prohibition in other states, where falling revenues and rising crime (including smuggling, tax evasion and illicit liquor production) forced its revocation. Four states – Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Mizoram, and Tamil Nadu – have repealed prohibition policies.
To be sure, not everyone loses out from a prohibition policy. When Kerala first announced its plans, neighboring Tamil Nadu’s alcoholic beverages corporation, TASMAC, promptly declared its intention to open a string of new outlets along the states’ border, to cater to the demands of Keralite consumers. In other words, excise duties from Kerala would now fill Tamil Nadu’s coffers.
Banning alcohol in India has been economically devastating. Yet politicians continue to use the promise of prohibition to win votes. When elections were called in Tamil Nadu early this year, its chief minister declared herself in favor of prohibition. After the election was won, however, all such talk discreetly subsided.
My late father liked to say: “India is not only the world’s largest democracy; we are also the world’s largest hypocrisy.” I suppose we can drink to that.
15 Sep. 2016