10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
U.S. Brewery Count Rises to 2,336
The Brewers Association also has reached out recently to principals connected to our brewery-in-planning list to ascertain whether the plans are still moving along and/or when the expected opening date is for the new brewery. As a result of our ability to inactivate some of those brewery-in-planning records and convert many to operational brewery status, our brewery-in-planning count has declined to 1,254 from a high of 1,381 at the end of October. Thanks to Erin Glass, Sarah White and Tami the Temp for their efforts to clarify the intentions of some of these people/entities.
A couple months ago, Beer Institute's Lester Jones publicized the U.S. Tax and Trade Bureau's (TTB's) count of active brewery notices of 2,751. What is the difference in the two numbers? The TTB number is of brewers notices. Brewers who operate as alternating proprietors have brewers notices. Multiple brewers may have notices but use the same brick-and-mortar brewery to make their beers in that alternating proprietor relationship. Contract brewing companies do not have brewers notices and are not in either the TTB or Brewers Association count. Also, the TTB tends not to quickly inactivate notices from brewers that have closed in the past couple of years, in hopes that they may revive and pay excise taxes again. So the number of breweries in the U.S. is 2,336 until the count gets updated at the end of January.
The count of operating U.S. breweries who are Brewers Association members is now at 1,650, up almost 300 breweries and 22 percent from the year before, and up from 1,000 four years ago. Seventy-one percent of U.S. breweries are members, up from 69 percent the year before. On the brewery-in-planning rolls, we have 995 members, up from 582 the year before. So the wave of openings appears that it will continue. Other membership numbers we have include 154 international breweries, 64 contract brewing companies, 7 companies that function only as alternating proprietors, 580 allied trade companies, 432 craft beer distributors and 704 individuals. American Homebrewers Association membership has climbed over 35,000.
Current counts by market segment are 24 breweries that are part of the two large brewers, 109 regional brewing companies, 1,084 microbreweries and 1,119 brewpubs. These numbers are a snapshot in time. Note that when we compile the 2012 brewery numbers as part of our Beer Industry Production Survey, the totals will be different because they will also include companies that closed during the year (because they did operate in 2012) as well as new information on openings and closings that come my way during the research and number crunching parts of the project. Final numbers will be presented at the Craft Brewers Conference in Washington, DC on March 27, 2013 and in the May/June issue of The New Brewer. You can also expect a growth press release in March and the top 50 craft breweries and top 50 U.S. breweries lists to come out in April.
Anyone care to give a guess at what the year-end 2013 count will be? Cheers!
14 Jan. 2013