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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Vietnam. Don’t Blow It

Vietnam has a briskly growing economy, a vibrant tech scene, and a young and entrepreneurial workforce. Foreign investment is surging. Exports are thriving. The local beer is the toast of Asia.

Yet by some measures, the country's progress is precarious. And as Vietnam's Communist Party convenes in Hanoi this week to select new leadership, amid much intrigue and controversy, there's a risk that the regime could squander a singular opportunity to reform its economy for the long run -- and to address the festering problems underlying Vietnam's remarkable rise.

The outcome of the selection process is still anyone's guess. The favored candidates for the party's general secretary are Nguyen Tan Dung, the current prime minister, and Nguyen Phu Trong, the incumbent. Dung generally supports freer markets and closer ties to the U.S.; Trong favors more state meddling and friendliness toward China.

Whoever wins will face a slate of economic conundrums, ideological quandaries and geopolitical hazards. But he also has two very big opportunities.

The first is demographic. Fully 60 percent of Vietnam's population is under age 35, with about two people of working age for every dependent. Actuaries call such a windfall a "golden population structure." Yet this won't last. In 20 years, the proportion of citizens aged 65 or older will roughly double. That means it's crucial to put a sustainable social safety net in place now, while the middle class is growing and able-bodied taxpayers abound.

The second opportunity is economic. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a U.S.-led free-trade deal, is likely to benefit Vietnam hugely. If ratified, it would cut some 18,000 tariffs in 12 countries, helping Vietnamese goods -- from apparel to seafood -- find new customers and new markets. By 2030, the World Bank reckons, the agreement would boost the country's exports by about 30 percent and its economic growth by 10 percent.

All this good fortune means that the new general secretary should have a very unusual grace period -- and a very brief window for pushing ambitious reforms.

Despite its lively growth figures, Vietnam faces some daunting challenges. The economy remains heavily dependent on low-wage labor and cheap exports. The tax system is among the most complicated in the world. Corruption is embarrassingly common. And distrust of government is widespread.

Some Vietnamese officials have recognized these problems. They've made progress in streamlining investment rules, selling off some state-owned companies, and opening more markets to foreign investors. They've also tried to encourage better governance and public works investment.

But a few further reforms are in order.

Relinquishing state control of more businesses should be the top priority (some of that delicious beer, for instance, is still brewed by the government). That would help rationalize the economy, reduce fraud and boost productivity, which would in turn ease the burdens of an aging workforce. Scrapping the regime's "two-child policy" could also alleviate demographic pressure. Raising the retirement age -- now set at 60 for men and 55 for women -- would go a long way toward shoring up the teetering pension scheme. And easing official discrimination against families that sided with the U.S. during the war would remove a serious impediment to upward mobility.

All easier said than done, of course. But there are indications that at least some members of the Communist Party understand these challenges and are prepared to act on them. There may never be a better time.

22 Янв. 2016

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