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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Thai beer drinkers power Singapore’s best stock

The biggest gainer among Singapore’s stocks this year is a foreigner. Thai Beverage’s return this year is almost triple that for the second-best stock in the Straits Times Index.

Singapore’s equities market, by contrast, is a laggard in Southeast Asia, suffering from lacklustre growth at banks, developers and oil-rig builders.

Malaysia’s Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd and London’s J O Hambro Capital Management Ltd are buying Thai Beverage shares, convinced the stock has further to climb despite record valuations, as it offers a haven from market turmoil around the world and may benefit from any restructuring plans.

“With slowing global growth, whatever shows potential or sustainable growth attracts a premium,” Kar Tzen Chow, Kuala Lumpur-based fund manager at Affin Hwang Asset, which oversees about $7.6 billion, said by phone. “ThaiBev’s spirits business continues to be stable and the beer business has shown a recovery.”

Thailand is betting on more than $18 billion in stimulus measures to help boost local demand and offset an export slump. The nation’s central bank has forecast economic expansion at 3.1% this year, compared with growth of 1% to 3% for Singapore, whose economy is among the most vulnerable in Asia to swings in global demand. More than 90% of Thai Beverage’s revenue came from Thailand in 2015, data by Bloomberg show.

“The fundamentals for Thai Beverage are very strong, with earnings supported by increasing domestic consumption in Thailand,” Nicholas Teo, a trading strategist at KGI Fraser Securities Pte in Singapore, said by phone. “In contrast, profits at traditional Singapore industries such as banks, shipyards and real estate are deteriorating.”

Billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, who expanded his property business amid government measures to curb alcohol consumption in Buddhist Thailand, was forced to list his Thai beverage unit in Singapore in 2006 after activists and monks held protests to block a local share sale by the company. Thai Beverage, which sells Chang beer, Blend 285 Whiskey and SangSom rum, has grown to become Southeast Asia’s largest beverage stock by market value.

Boosting estimates

The surge in Thai Beverage will continue as analysts raise their earnings estimates to reflect greater contribution from its beer business, according to Samir Mehta, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at J O Hambro in Singapore.

Analysts increased their average profit forecasts for 2016 by 7.4% to 26 billion baht ($741 million) after its first-quarter net income jumped 30% from a year earlier. Beer sales volumes soared 61%, lifting the brewery operation’s contributions to group revenue to 33% from 23%. The spirits business remained its cash cow.

Revamp seen

There is “limited upside” at current levels following the stock’s recent price run-up, according to Jodie Foo, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research, who cut the stock to hold in a June report.

Thai Beverage is trading at the highest level ever relative to the broader MSCI All Country World Index. The stock is valued at 22 times its 12-month projected earnings, above its average of 16 in the past five years and almost double the multiple for the Straits Times Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Speculation that Mr Charoen will further revamp his beverage businesses in Thailand and Singapore may spur more rallies in the stock, said Religare Capital Markets in a May note. The company’s founder and chairman may consolidate his drinks businesses held through Singapore-based Fraser & Neave Ltd and Oishi Group Plc into Thai Beverage, according to the report. Company officials couldn’t be reached for comment.

The company’s strategic road map toward having 50% revenue contribution from countries outside Thailand as well as from non-alcoholic beverage by 2020 may be sped up via acquisitions and restructurings, according to OCBC’s Foo in her report.

Mr Charoen controls Fraser & Neave through TCC Assets Ltd, which owns 59% of the Singapore company and Thai Beverage, which holds another 29%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We bought the shares because their cash flows are decent,” J O Hambro’s Mehta said. “The upside could come from the restructuring that the group might undertake. They could simplify the structure and that’s going to be beneficial for the minority shareholders.”

6 Июл. 2016

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