The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms. The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
Beer market of Kazakhstan acquired both traits of East European countries and South Eastern Asia taking a transitional position between them by many criteria and consumption style. Yet there is a positive trend in beer production which differs Kazakhstan from most of the neighboring countries. The market has remained consolidated in the hands of two international players because of its small size. However, it faces dynamic processes such as fast growth of draft beer sales, up and downs of regional companies and Carlsberg Group’s ultimate expansion. Excessive mainstream segment has declined over the recent years, yet, Zhigulevskoe and national brands with regional links have yielded their positions to a range of new products. In our review special attention was paid to regional analysis of the markets. In 14 regions of Kazakhstan we compared the companies’ positions, the market price segmentation and DIOT channel development. Besides we have compared the beer market of Kazakhstan to neighboring countries. ...
Malaysia. Cheers to brewery stocks, shares rise on price increase
This was a result of the expiry of the Anti-Profiteering Act on June 30, where both brewers reported a price adjustment that resulted in a hike of 2% to 2.5% in average selling prices (ASPs).
Heineken Malaysia Bhd reported a higher increase in ASPs of 2.5% while Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd’s ASP increase was at a lower 2% quantum.
Carlsberg’s stock was up 14 sen at RM13.72 while Heineken was up 48 sen at RM16.68 yesterday.
CIMB Research noted that this was not a surprise given that both companies have not passed on any goods and services tax costs since the law’s implementation, while the recent 2% to 5% price hike was solely to account for the 10% to 12% hike in excise duty back in March.
Carlsberg currently holds an estimated 40% of Malaysia’s malt liquor market (MLM), with its range of beers including Carlsberg and Asahi.
Meanwhile, Heineken has the larger share in Malaysia with its products consistently holding a 60% share of the local market.
“In our view, a 2% to 3% increase is fair, as brewers have been absorbing additional cost from GST since April 2015.
“However, we opine that the net impact on earnings from the increase should be minimal in the short term but positive in the long term.
“In the near term, we expect MLM volumes to be to some extent negatively affected, as consumers may opt to reduce consumption from the price hike.
“However, MLM volumes are set to recover once consumers adapt to the higher prices, as we believe demand remains inelastic,” said CIMB Research.
CIMB Research said based on its channel checks, price increases varied for different products for both brewers.
It said the quantum of ASP increase was dependent on various factors including the amount of cost previously absorbed.
“On average, products with lower MLM volumes and lesser alcohol content have had lower increases in prices.
“In contrast, high-volume products recorded higher price increases, likely due to inelastic demand for its mainstream products, which have alcohol content of 5% and above,” said CIMB Research.
CIMB Research is of the view that this development is a long-term positive, as it expects MLM volumes to recover whilst consumers adapt to the higher prices.
Thus CIMB is raising financial year (FY) 2016 to FY18 earnings by 2.6% to 3.1% and 2.1% to 3.5% for Heineken and Carlsberg, respectively.
It is maintaining an “overweight” call on brewers and believes that earnings will continue to be driven by an inelastic demand for alcoholic drinks as well as internal efforts to increase operating efficiencies.
Its top pick for the sector remains Heineken for its diversified product portfolio as well as dominant market share in Malaysia.
It has a target price of RM16.60 for Heineken, and a “hold” call on Carlsberg with a target price of RM13.60.
7 Июл. 2016