The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms. The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
Beer market of Kazakhstan acquired both traits of East European countries and South Eastern Asia taking a transitional position between them by many criteria and consumption style. Yet there is a positive trend in beer production which differs Kazakhstan from most of the neighboring countries. The market has remained consolidated in the hands of two international players because of its small size. However, it faces dynamic processes such as fast growth of draft beer sales, up and downs of regional companies and Carlsberg Group’s ultimate expansion. Excessive mainstream segment has declined over the recent years, yet, Zhigulevskoe and national brands with regional links have yielded their positions to a range of new products. In our review special attention was paid to regional analysis of the markets. In 14 regions of Kazakhstan we compared the companies’ positions, the market price segmentation and DIOT channel development. Besides we have compared the beer market of Kazakhstan to neighboring countries. ...
Doubts over SABMiller bid for Fosters
Why would the London-listed global brewer clear the decks if it was not gearing up to pounce? On the other hand, analysts are far from convinced that SABMiller would benefit much from doing so, apart from increasing its size and planting a flag in the Pacific.
The actual profit potential from synergy savings is marginal, especially in Australia, which is a developed market.
Figures from Evolution Securities point to Australia being five times more profitable per hectolitre of beer than the UK, but Foster's share price is already discounting a fully priced bid of about $11.5 billion and that includes the troubled wine interests, Treasury Wine Estates, which encompasses the Rosemount, Penfolds, Wolf Blass and Wynn's labels.
Could rivals be tempted into the fray and flush out SABMiller? Some speculate that Japan's big brewers, themselves struggling with static home markets, might be interested, but they have never made a success of overseas acquisitions and would face the same lack of cost-saving opportunity as SABMiller.
However, the cost of capital to the Japanese is minimal and the desire to do something - anything - to revive their businesses is strong.
Foster's shareholders would love a premium to the present share price, which almost 10% below where it stood last summer when the group said it was considering splitting the beer and wine arms into two separately listed companies, so divergent were their prospects and calls on capital.
However, it is hard to see anyone paying a premium price after Foster's announces its six-month figures in a couple of weeks' time. They are likely to be less than buoyant due to the floods and other recent natural disasters in its home market.
Even more depressing is that the potential that value of Treasury Wine Estates has probably decreased since Foster's turned down a ?1.7bn bid from Cerberus Capital, the US investment group, in the autumn.
Analysts calculate that the beer division is worth about $10bn, which at Foster's present share price puts a value of just $1.5bn (?1bn) on Treasury. Foster's said the Cerberus offer undervalued Treasury but the Americans have made no further move. Perhaps they think they are now in a buyers' market.
However, the Foster' s board has this week acted to secure Treasury's vital supplies of New Zealand wine by lifting its stake in Rapaura Vintners to 50%.
The popularity of sauvignon blanc, which now outsells chardonnay in Australia, means secure sources in Marlborough are essential. Rapaura is a key supplier to international markets with the capacity to package 11m cases a year.
That may help improve the prospects of a bidder for Treasury, but the Foster's board has a delicate balancing act to perform on February 15.
Assuming that Foster's announces the split of the beer and wine arms (watch the share price fall if it doesn't), the best prospect of attracting a premium bid for the beer division is to have it carry as little debt as possible. But that would mean saddling Treasury with extra burdens and making it less attractive.
Could Foster's announce a final solution with offers for both divisions on February 15? Stranger things have happened.
28 Янв. 2011