Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
It’s all but cheers to Foster’s as global beer economics scales new heights
The modus operandi of private equity operators is to buy a business with a strong cash flow, squeeze costs, bulk up the revenue and flip it after three to five years through a trade sale or float.
In the case of Independent, it has been 4? long years since Pacific Equity Partners and Unitas jointly acquired the alcopop maker, whose brands include Woodstock, Vodka Cruiser and Purple Goanna, for a massive $NZ1.3 billion, dramatically out-bidding trade buyers such as Brown-Forman, Lion Nathan, Diageo and Asahi.
Advertisement: Story continues below The initial attraction of Independent was its strong cash flows and the fact that Australia was an anomaly in the global alcohol market. The penetration of ready-to-drink products was twice as high as that of any other market.
But the global financial crisis, a radical change in taxes on ready-to-drinks and changing consumer tastes slashed revenue and forced the private equity owners to pump in up to $50 million in fresh equity through the issue of new shares in New Zealand company Flavoured Beverages Group Holdings.
Fast forward to today and the company has been busy cutting costs and expanding into the US and Asia, helping its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) surpass what they were before the global financial crisis and tax changes.
It is now putting the word out for a partner to help accelerate growth in international markets. Names touted include Bright Foods, Coca-Cola Amatil, Suntory and Asahi.
While UBS is busy looking for a suitable deal for its private equity clients, and playing on the fact that once Foster's is sold Independent is the last big alcohol business left for sale, SAB Miller, along with Foster's shareholders and hedge funds, are trying to find the magic price that would clinch a sale of Foster's beer business.
For SAB, its final bid price will factor in the cost of losing two lucrative beer licences, Stella and Corona, which contribute more than $100 million a year to Foster's pre-tax profit. While there is no guarantee that Foster's would lose these licences with a change in ownership, they are such powerful contracts that any potential buyer would need to factor in the possibility.
The Stella beer licence is to expire in the next year and competitors will no doubt start lobbying the owner of Stella, Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world's largest brewer. The chances of Foster's keeping the licence, worth about $15 million a year, are far from guaranteed.
Indeed, since the global merger of Anheuser-Busch and Inbev, the new entity's strategy is to appoint one brewer in each region to manage its licences.
Right now, its beer licences in Australia and New Zealand are split between beer duopolies Lion Nathan and Foster's. But it tipped the balance in Lion Nathan's favour when it granted Lion the licence to produce and distribute its Budweiser brands in Australia and New Zealand. Lion also has the licence for Becks.
Industry sources suggest Foster's generates more than $80 million in earnings a year from Corona.
Foster's EBITDA in 2010 was $1.2 billion and Merrill Lynch estimates in 2011 it will be $894 million.
Some analysts value Stella and Corona licences at between $350 million and $380 million. Lion Nathan holds the Corona licence in New Zealand.
If SAB succeeds in buying Foster's, the issue will be whether Modelo wants to stick with the new owner or go to someone else, particularly if Anheuser-Busch InBev - which owns 50 per cent of Corona - decides to increase its stake in Modelo in what could become the next chapter of the global consolidation of the beer industry. If this happens, the Corona brand would then be in the Anheuser-Busch Inbev portfolio.
Another factor is Foster's IT system, which is the backbone of the business and is currently joined at the hip with its separately listed wine business.
Foster's and Treasury Wine Estates are currently trying to split the integrated platform but this will take until 2013 at a cost of $42 million.
Any new owner would want to accelerate this as the core operation of both businesses, including orders, delivery, receivables and sales, are enmeshed on one platform.
Foster's full-year results will be out in August and the market isn't expecting anything too flash as the whole market is down. While Foster's will no doubt try and pull a few rabbits out of the hat, and claim momentum and highlight hidden value, if Foster's boss John Pollaers fails to convince investors of growth prospects, pressure will mount on the board to accept a takeover - fast.
Foster's has disappointed investors for years. The latest ACNielsen figures show market share is below 50 per cent, after being 54 per cent a few years ago.
The reason? A lack of product innovation, changing consumer tastes, the rise of private label brands in the supermarket chains, the entrance of new competitors, poor management and parallel importing.
In beer economics, less production volume means less recovery of production fixed costs. It's all to do with losing or winning scale economies.
And that momentum has been steadily moving against Foster's towards Lion Nathan, Coopers and the supermarket chains. Time has run out for Foster's; it is now about getting the best price.
27 Июн. 2011