The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms.The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
Beer market of Kazakhstan acquired both traits of East European countries and South Eastern Asia taking a transitional position between them by many criteria and consumption style. Yet there is a positive trend in beer production which differs Kazakhstan from most of the neighboring countries. The market has remained consolidated in the hands of two international players because of its small size. However, it faces dynamic processes such as fast growth of draft beer sales, up and downs of regional companies and Carlsberg Group’s ultimate expansion. Excessive mainstream segment has declined over the recent years, yet, Zhigulevskoe and national brands with regional links have yielded their positions to a range of new products. In our review special attention was paid to regional analysis of the markets. In 14 regions of Kazakhstan we compared the companies’ positions, the market price segmentation and DIOT channel development. Besides we have compared the beer market of Kazakhstan to neighboring countries. ...
Bid for Foster’s may need a top-up
SABMiller's bid puts an enterprise value (market value plus net debt) of $10.4 billion on Foster's. That's 12.7 times earnings before interest and tax of $887 million that Foster's announced yesterday, and when it releases its formal defence, Fosters will produce comparisons with other beer industry takeovers that make that look a bit light.
The key comparison is Kirin of Japan's takeover of Lion Nathan in 2009. The EBIT-to-enterprise value multiple in that case was 15.2 times, which, all other things being equal, points to about $5.95 a share for Foster's.
Advertisement: Story continues below Foster's will point to overseas deals that were more expensive too, but SABMiller can cite other takeovers that were cheaper and argue that, on other profit-to-enterprise-value measures, it is pretty much matching the price Kirin paid for Lion. It will also point out that Kirin bought a company that was gaining market share, while it is bidding for one that has been losing it.
Foster's said volumes slid by 5.2 per cent during the year and by 6 per cent for beer, in line with the beer market overall, in a year that Pollaers said was the toughest since the recession years of the early 1990s.
That means beer market share was stable, overall, although Pollaers argues that market share is no longer the prime number. He says the group will not subsidise beer sales and actually allowed the group's bottle-shop beer market share to fall slightly in the June half after withholding supplies temporarily from outlets that were either discounting too heavily, or threatening to.
Foster's shares were sitting at the bid price before the result and closed 9? or 1.8 per cent higher at $4.99 yesterday. The market rose by 2.2 per cent, so investors are hunting for a bump, but also agreeing with Pollaers that there's a lot of renovation work to come. The steady beer market share, for example, flatters the local brands because it includes Foster's star imported beer, Corona, which grew volumes by 15 per cent in the imported beer segment that accounts for 9 per cent of the Australian beer market.
Hedge funds - which want a bid to sell into - still control between 10 and 15 per cent of the brewer's shares; retail shareholders - who have in the main been on the share register for years - control another 20 to 25 per cent and about three-quarters of the group is owned by institutions.
Pollaers has contacted most of the institutions and is getting no feedback that $4.90 should be embraced.
That will change if SABMiller sweetens the bid to give Foster's shareholders an up-front piece of the renovation gain that Pollaers is promising to deliver over the next few years - a gain that it will also capture if it takes control: about $5.50 looks right to me.
WHEN the brouhaha over BlueScope Steel's decision to halve steel production at Port Kembla and quit steel exporting at a cost of about $500 million and 1000 jobs has subsided, BlueScope will probably be re-rated by the market.
Closure was inevitable given that exports were costing the company $250 million a year after the soaring Australian dollar and record coking coal and iron ore prices pushed its production costs from just within the top quartile of world steel producers to the bottom of the third quartile - but the retreat is being done in a way that gives BlueScope options.
Steel production will halve to 2.6 million tonnes a year with the closure of one of the group's two Port Kembla blast furnaces, but only one of BlueScope's four Kembla coke ovens will be closing down. Coke that is produced and not consumed by the remaining blast furnace can be profitably exported and, if the price of coal and iron ore eases and the Australian dollar also falls, BlueScope can resume exporting by firing up the shuttered blast furnace and directing coke production towards it.
The closure of one of the coke ovens means the previous production of 5.2 million tonnes would not be attained, but a return to production of about 4.2 million tonnes a year is possible.
When the current restructuring is complete expect BlueScope to be in the market for coking coal and iron ore reserves of its own. It fought for but lost its Illawarra coal reserves when it was spun out of BHP a decade ago and has been looking at coal and iron takeovers ever since. It knows it erred in not moving before the commodity price boom took off and will fix the mistake if the boom cools.
24 Авг. 2011