Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
TEXT-S&P summary: Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V./S.A.
Summary analysis -- Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V./S.A. ---------------- 22-Nov-2012
CREDIT RATING: A/Stable/A-1 Country: Belgium
Primary SIC: Distilled and
Mult. CUSIP6: 03524A
Credit Rating History:
Local currency Foreign currency
01-May-2012 A/A-1 A/A-1
19-Apr-2011 A-/A-2 A-/A-2
14-Jul-2008 BBB+/A-2 BBB+/A-2
The ratings on Belgium-based international brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V./S.A. (ABI) reflect Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' view of its "excellent" business risk profile and "intermediate" financial risk profile.
We view ABI's leading market positions, high margins, and broad geographic diversity as supportive of its "excellent" business risk profile. ABI's adjusted EBITDA margin at the end of June 2012 was 42%; the group's closest competitors report adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-20s to mid-30s. In the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2012, 46% of reported EBITDA came from North America, 42% from Latin America, 10% from Europe, and 3% from Asia. Minus 1% was attributable to the global export and holding companies division.
We view as a business strength the high quality of earnings in the businesses owned by ABI at the parent level, as well as ABI's close association with the large and cash-generative subgroup headed by its subsidiary, Brazil-based AmBev - Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (AmBev; A/Stable/--, Brazil national scale brAAA/Stable/--). AmBev, ABI's most significant non-fully-owned subsidiary, covers Latin America (excluding Mexico), the Caribbean, and Canada.
At the end of June 2012, ABI reported adjusted debt of about $40 billion, which equates to an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4x. The ratings incorporate the impact of ABI's planned acquisition of the stake in Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo that it doesn't already own.
S&P base-case operating scenario
In our base-case scenario we project that over the next few years ABI will be able to grow its revenues at a mid-single-digit rate annually. In our view, this will be driven by strong demand and a growing taste for premium-brand products in developing regions such as Latin America and Asia, especially as the middle-income population in these regions increases. Demand in these regions should continue to offset weaker demand in developed markets, particularly in Europe where consumer confidence remains low.
We think that ABI will be able to expand its margins modestly over the next few years as a result of its pricing power, which is made possible by strong positioning in its key regions. In Brazil, for example, ABI leads the market with a 69% beer market share (via AmBev) and in the U.S. it leads with 48%. In addition, cost controls and economies of scale should support the group's margins.
S&P base-case cash flow and capital-structure scenario
Given our base-case operating assumptions, we project that ABI will generate funds from operations (FFO) of between $12 billion and $15 billion annually over the next few years. Assuming capital expenditure (capex) equal to 15%-20% of EBITDA and a dividend payment of about $3 billion in 2013, we project that in 2013 ABI will generate discretionary cash flows of about $6 billion. We have no indication of any share buybacks, therefore we have not incorporated such activity into our projections.
In our projections we have incorporated the acquisition of the portion of Grupo Modelo that ABI doesn't already own. We estimate that this transaction will add about 0.5x to the adjusted-debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Taking account of this acquisition, we project ABI is sufficiently cash generative to enable it to reduce adjusted leverage to close to 2x by the end of 2013 and below 2x during 2014. Our projection for 2013 is further supported by our understanding that the group remains committed to reaching a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2x. At the end of June 2012, adjusted debt to EBITDA was 2.4x and adjusted FFO to debt was 30%.
The 'A-1' short-term rating reflects our opinion that, over the short term, ABI should have ample internal liquidity, good cash flow characteristics, and significant access to the capital markets. We view ABI's liquidity as "adequate" under our criteria. This descriptor indicates a sources-to-uses ratio of at least 1.2x.
We forecast that liquidity sources for the next 12 months will include:
-- About $3.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents as of the end of June 2012;
-- FFO of about $12 billion; and
-- About $7.1 billion available under the group's $8 billion committed credit facilities with maturity in June 2016.
In our view, liquidity uses for the next 12 months include:
-- Short-term debt of about $7.6 billion at the end of June 2012;
-- Capex of about $3.4 billion; and
-- Dividends of about $3 billion.
We have not included the payment for Grupo Modelo as a use of cash as ABI has committed financing to fund this acquisition. Specifically, the group has added $14 billion of additional bank facilities: an $8 billion three-year facility and a $6 billion one-year facility with a one-year extension option.
Of further support to the group's "adequate" liquidity is:
-- Well-spread-out debt maturities. As of end-June 2012, about 39% of the group's total debt matures in more than five years. In addition, ABI benefits from a degree of currency diversification, with about one-third of the group's debt denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
-- Lack of financial covenants in the group's core debt facilities, including the facilities put in place to fund the Modelo acquisition.
-- Good access to euro and U.S. dollar capital markets. In July 2012, the group issued $7.5 billion of bonds comprising three-year, five-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities and in September it issued EUR2,250 million of bonds comprised of five-year, seven-year, and 12-year maturities. These issuances have further enhanced the group's overall liquidity position, including its debt maturity profile.
The stable outlook reflects our opinion that ABI's strong discretionary cash flow generation will enable it to reduce its adjusted-debt-to-EBITDA ratio to close to 2x by the end of 2013. We anticipate that adjusted FFO to debt will remain above 30% over the medium term. We consider an FFO-to-debt ratio of close to 30%, and an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of close to 2.0x--equating to a gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio of between 2.0x-2.5x--to be commensurate with the current rating.
We could consider lowering the ratings if increased discretionary spending sees the group not returning to adjusted debt-to-EBITDA of close to 2x by the end of 2013, after the impact of the Modelo acquisition in 2013. Given the unconsolidated nature of the brewing industry, we view further M&A activity within the industry as likely. However, in view of ABI's stated commitment to the 2.0x net debt to EBITDA leverage target, we currently do not believe that ABI will change its financial policy in any way that would lead us to consider a downgrade.
We estimate that ABI is sufficiently cash generative to enable it to reduce adjusted debt to EBITDA to below 2x in 2014. An upgrade would likely be contingent on the group deleveraging to below 2.0x and also expressing commitment to maintaining this. As such, we view the possibility of an upgrade as unlikely at this stage.
Related Criteria And Research
All articles listed below are available on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal, unless otherwise stated.
-- Key Credit Factors: Criteria For Rating The Global Branded Nondurable Consumer Products Industry, April 28, 2011
-- Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011
-- Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18, 2012
23 Ноя. 2012