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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

GLOBAL: Carlsberg will hold edge over rivals in 2013 — analyst

Carlsberg holds more potential for investors than its rivals brewers this year as its Russian performance continues to improve, according to an analyst.

The Danish brewer's stock price has suffered from its exposure in its key market of Russia, Bernstein analyst, Trevor Stirling, said in a note yesterday (8 January). But though 2013 is “unlikely to be a bumper year for Carlsberg”, a stabilised Russian market and the brewer's reversal of a two-year market share lose there mean its stock will outperform, Stirling said.

Its rival, Heineken, should also see a jump in share price as Mexico drives fresh growth and its recent Asia Pacific Breweries deal adds to earning, he added.

Carlsberg and Heineken will both be boosted this year due to lower barley and aluminium costs and better cost savings, Stirling suggested. “We expect that this improved earnings outlook will also lead to a further modest re-rating, resulting in the end of the double discount that we believe afflicts both stocks,” the note said.

Meanwhile, Anheuser-Busch InBev's share growth is expected to be held back by its exposure to the US, Stirling said. But he added: "US beer volumes are improving as unemployment in key demographics is slowly but steadily declining and the rate of consumer deleverage is slowing."

For SABMiller, currency fluctuations in its core emerging markets will damage profits, Stirling predicted.

Meanwhile, the analyst branded 2012 “a year of two halves” for Europe's beverage shares, with H1 out-performance giving way to a 2% under-performance in H2.

“We expect this (H1) pattern to continue into 2013,” Stirling said, adding that investors are likely to take funds from beverages to invest in higher-risk shares.

The note added: “We are likely looking at several more months of subdued broadly-neutral relative performance.”

8 Янв. 2013

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