Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
China. Floods, weather render beer flat
The worst floods in China since 1998 and cooler-than-usual weather are eroding sales at the nation's brewers, deepening a slump caused by the economic slowdown.
China Resources Beer Holdings, the country's largest brewer, said that sales fell 4.6 percent in the three months ended June from a year ago, partly because of "unfavorable weather". Revenue rose 1.8 percent in the first three months this year.
Lower-than-average temperatures and torrential rains probably contributed to a more than 10 percent drop in beer industry sales volume in China in the first six months of 2016, Allen Cheng, an analyst at Morningstar Investment Services said in an interview. Foul weather kept customers away from bars, restaurants and karaoke establishments and deepened a slowdown in sales growth caused by slower economic growth and a shift toward other alcoholic beverages, Cheng said.
Heavy rains in June and July across central and southern China have caused the country's worst flooding in nearly two decades, leaving hundreds dead and farms submerged. Direct economic losses from the floods are estimated to be 147 billion yuan ($22 billion), the government sources said.
The storms will shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from this quarter's economic expansion, according to almost half of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Regional brewers will probably see a bigger impact than nationwide rivals like China Resources' Snow beer, said Cheng.
China Resources Beer sales fell to 8.36 billion yuan in the three months ending in June, compared with 8.77 billion yuan a year ago. Beer sales volume dropped 3.6 percent to 3.47 million kiloliters in the quarter.
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co gets 95 percent of its revenue from southern China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Chongqing Brewery Co gets 93 percent of revenue from the southwestern region, while Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd earn 33 percent and 14 percent of their revenue respectively in the country's south. Most of the companies will report second-quarter earnings at the end of August.
China Resources Beer commanded a 22 percent market share in China last year, followed by Tsingtao with 15 percent and Yanjing with 7.2 percent, according to Euromonitor International.
China Resources shares have gained 2.9 percent this year, while Tsingtao has dropped 22 percent and Zhujiang Brewery has slumped 21 percent.
Zhujiang Brewery declined to comment, while Chongqing Brewery, Yanjing and Tsingtao were not immediately available for comment.
1 Авг. 2016