Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Vietnam. Foreign Investors Wait Major Vietnam Divestment With Bated Breath
While State Capital Investment Corporation (SCIC) has announced its intentions to sell stakes in major firms Vinamilk, and the Saigon Alcohol Beer and Beverages Corporation (Sabeco), investors are waiting with bated breath for these plans to come to fruition.
According to The Economist Vinamilk, considered the best-run firm in Vietnam with profits growing by nearly a third each year over the past decade, earned US$420 million in pre-tax profits and US$1.8 billion in revenue in 2015. As Vietnamese still drink far less milk on average than in neighbouring countries, there is ample room for Vinamilk to grow further. The company currently has a market value of over US$9 billion.
It comes as no surprise then that foreign investors in particular are eyeing the company closely. The SCIC owns 44.7 per cent of Vinamilk’s shares, which is actually low compared to government stakes in other big firms. This figure is set to decrease further by the end of the year.
Vietnam Net reports that SCIC deputy CEO Nguyen Hong Hien told a conference on October 25 that the organisation will sell 9 per cent of its Vinamilk stake in late November or early December. This will be the first tranche of a gradual full sell-off of the State’s ownership in the dairy giant.
SCIC has hired Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, Saigon Securities Incorporation (SSI) and the VinaCapital Corporate Finance Vietnam Company Ltd. to advise it on the sale.
Thailand brewing giant ThaiBev is thought to be one of the front-runners for buying additional shares when they become available. The Thai conglomerate already owns 11 per cent of Vinamilk through Fraser and Neave. Like everyone else though, they will have to wait until more details regarding the divestment are confirmed.
Vietnam Brewers Await
The other major prize in SCIC’s divestment push is Habeco, or the Hanoi Beer Alcohol and Beverage Joint Stock Corp. Along with Sabeco the two firms command roughly three-fifths of the Vietnam beer market.
Figures from the Vietnam Beer Alcohol Beverage Association (VBAB) show that the country quaffed nearly four billion litres of beer in 2015, ranking third in Asia behind China and Japan. This makes both serious money-makers, and SCIC holds dominant positions in both – 90 per cent in Sabeco and 82 per cent in Habeco. Sales of these stakes could net the government over US$2 billion in dividends according to The Economist.
So far no dates have been confirmed for these sales, but the government has stated that they will take place next year.
According to Viet Nam News, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has requested that both companies be listed on the stock exchange before divestment takes place in order to guarantee transparency. However, as VietJet Air’s frustrating efforts to go public have illustrated, this is easier said than done.
Obstacles remain for foreign investors wishing to get a piece of the action in Vietnam.
While the government has provided a broad timeline for divestment of its interests in Vinamilk, Sabeco, and Habeco, specific dates remain elusive. At the same time The Economist alludes to rumours of ‘golden shares’, which would allow the government to retain control of their cash cows even after getting rid of most of its shares.
Thus far these are no more than rumours, but the authorities are understandably hesitant to offload such lucrative assets, even as public debt skyrockets.
If Vinamilk’s 9 per cent sale goes according to plan, within the next 90 days or so, foreign investors will have renewed confidence that Vietnam is serious about opening its most successful companies to outside money. It will also provide a rough yardstick as to how successful VietJet’s much talked about IPO will be… if it ever makes it to the runway.
3 Ноя. 2016