The merger of two beer giants AB InBev and SAB Miller will lead to a monopoly in the market of China and USA.
Currently SAB Miller holds 49% of shares of the largest Chinese beer producer China Resources Snow (CR Snow). At the same time, AB InBev is the third largest company in terms of production and sales volume in the Chinese beer market. Following a process of the merger the total share of these companies in the Chinese beer industry will be 42%.
The merger will be a kind of “big bang” for China. However, further consolidation may lead to more rational competition. According to the analysis of the Goldman Sachs agency, the expansion of the Chinese beer industry and profit growth in 5-7 times is expected in the next 5 years.
The main issue is what will be the response of the Antimonopoly Committee of China to the merger. Analysts believe that the Chinese government can offer AB InBev to reduce the share in the portfolio of CR Snow to 37% of the shares.
If the merger is successful, the operating margin of CR Snow is expected to increase from 7% in 2015 to 19% in 2019.