Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Carlsberg aims to strengthen position in India — CEO
It was better than the 1.91 billion crowns loss forecast in a Reuters poll, and at 1210 GMT the share traded 3.9 percent higher for the day.
Below are comments from Chief Executive Cees 't Hart to Reuters:
ON 2016 SWING FACTORS
"We see the growth of the Asian division as an opportunity. We have a stellar growth in especially India. For us it is important to see if this strong growth in India is sustainable, by which we are building up a very attractive business pretty quickly."
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDIAN MARKET
"India is like many countries in one country. We have been able to get into number one and number two positions in some states. Those are relatively isolated states. Almost like countries in Europe, or even more so as you have to pay import duty in some of these states.
"Once you have a position as number one or number two you are pretty well protected in such an environment.
"We need to strengthen that and grow to more states in order to increase our footprint in India. It is not an immediate profit bringer, but it can potentially be a growth bringer over the coming five to ten years."
ON 2016 GUIDANCE
"I generally feel that the guidance here at the beginning of the year is a realistic one.
"We assume the Chinese beer market will show an improving trend compared with the declining trend of the last two years. That needs to come through, of course. We are a bit more optimistic there.
"The Eastern European markets are expected to remain under pressure. The last couple of months the macro economics in Russia have not improved at all.
"So I will sincerely say this guidance is a realistic one".
ON MAKING ACQUISITIONS
"Our focus is on organic improvement in the company. It is too easy to say that we buy our way out of the issues we have. We need to improve in Russia. We need to improve our margins in Western Europe. We need to continue our growth, with costs as well, especially some capex in India.
"We have enough on our plate in order to do better.
"M&A is not on our top list".
($1 = 6.6086 Danish crowns)
18 Мар. 2016